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2012, elections, Fidesz, Hungary, Jobbik

Fidesz conservatives gain supporters, far-right Jobbik less popular

While Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party, and opposition parties MSZP and LMP enjoy a slowly growing support, the far-right Jobbik party is losing followers and the Democratic Coalition cannot increase its popularity, the latest survey by Ipsos showed on Wednesday. It also found that the ratio of voters with party preference is shrinking.

The poll conducted in mid-March with a 1,500-strong sample (18 years of age and above) shows a 19% support for Fidesz (cc. 1.5 million people) and a 14% support for the Socialist Party (MSZP) among eligible voters, which would translate into 1.1 million voters. For both party this means a 1-percentage-point gain from February. Last month their popularity grew by 2 ppts each.

Support for green party LMP has been fluctuating within a tight range over the past 18-24 months. The party is at the height of this range now with a 5% support among eligible voters, which translates into a cc. 400,000-strong voter base.

The camp of far-right nationalist Jobbik party has been shrinking gradually over the past quarter. Its support ebbed from 10% in December 2011 to 7% by mid-March. This means the party could count on some 600,000 people to vote for it if elections were held this Sunday. The Democratic Coalition, a creation of former Socialist Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány, has been enjoying stagnating support (2%) for months. This means about 150,000-200,000 supporters.

Ipsos finds it interesting that the political lethargy that was observed at the turn of the year has abated. While about one third of the population said they would cast their ballot in an election, now about 40% of the eligible voters said they would turn up at the voting booths this Sunday.

The ratio of those with no party preference has declined, from a 57% peak to 52%. This means still more than half of the eligible voters are either undecided about which party to support or would not vote at all.

via HOPE not hate international: Fidesz conservatives gain supporters, far-right Jobbik less popular.



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